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Beef

UK – UK cattle prices showed signs of softening in the first half of October however they did recover towards the latter stages of the month. The late mild weather has meant that steaking cuts remained strong while round cuts have started their seasonal upward trend quit. It has been estimated that with an improved outlook for sales over the festive period, and the influence the weakening of the £ has had will tip the supply vs demand balance very quickly in favour of the producer over the coming months.

UK exports will also continue to rise as the consistent devaluation of the £ continues to add value to UK material.  Imported Beef – Imported beef will
become very difficult throughout November and December with seasonality and the currency driving prices upwards. Current market conditions would suggest the market will strengthen with no signs of letting up this side of the New Year.

Lamb

Lamb prices fell further throughout October suggesting demand for sheep meat has fallen.  Possibly driven by the cheaper alternatives
that have been available. This drop in price is spite of the fall in the number of lambs coming top auction.

The kill has fallen in New Zealand and are only expected to pick up throughout the last 2 weeks of October and into November with arrivals into
the UK for mid-December and January. This should hopefully mean that prices will have peaked. There will be an extreme shortage of legs and middles in the short term as the impact of the seasonal upward trend is about to kick in.

Middles are also extremely tight having been processed into boneless loins and traded into the continent.  Estimates would indicate that this will mean. Racks (Cutlets) are behind on sales of F/T Racks into USA.  The same applies, don’t expect any until February 2017. Due to the shortage, F/T Racks S/Racks are achieving sales of £8.00 per kg, therefore little Neck Fillet will be taken out.

Pork & Bacon

lamb

UK pig supplies have levelled out as supply and demand seem to be off setting each other. This should provide some stabilisation in the market as we enter into the busiest period of the year. Although the deadweight prices have continued to creep upwards, there will be plenty of opportunities on certain cuts.

A steady drop in demand for loins across the continent resulted in an increased supply of bacon forcing the market prices to drop throughout October. Demand for legs have remained consistent resulting in unchanged prices. Bellies supplies remain tight as prices continue to rise.

Poultry

EU and UK chicken prices remained stable since the initial disruption of Brexit. Prices from the EU will
remain “stand on” throughout October with UK prices likely to follow suit. Longer term. Prices are likely to come under threat following from a reduction of 5% in Chinese production in 2016 with further declines in 2017 estimated to by circa 10-15%. This will result in pressure in UK and EU markets.

Download the Nov Report 2016 as a PDF file

Beef

UK – UK cattle prices remained flat throughout November and is estimated that there will be little change throughout December. It has been predicted that the usual downward dip we see in January will not happen with the growing demand for export helping to keep the market buoyant. However, it will be important to remember that is the consumer demand for beef id not as robust as normal then there will be a lot of surplus material available in the New Year. Christmas is very much at the for front of everyone’s mind and the processors very much active in the market to cover the festive forecasts they are doing so with an element of caution as there is still a lot of uncertainty surround what the market may do.

beeftwo


Mercosur – Global Exports during October were at their lowest since January showing signs that market  conditions have within the UK and EU have become less appealing to the South Americans

Europe - Is currently regarded as the cheapest place to buy meat at the moment. The reduced availability coming from South America has meant that more peoples are looking to import from the continent.

Lamb

UK lamb prices continued to fall in the first 3 weeks of November but have shown signs of strengthening during the last week. The recent drop in prices is said to be down to lower demand and the recent strengthening of the pound. Slaughter number have also decreased by 12% compared to the same time last year. This could be down to the fact that producers have not been promoting their product due to the falling prices


Pork & Bacon


UK pig prices once again rose throughout November to the highest level since 2014 (£0.24 higher than 
this time last year). Slaughter numbers have remained unchanged which and also mirror the same levels as last year. The weakness of the pound continues to fuel the demand for export which when coupled with tight supply has enabled producers to remain bullish. 

EU bacon backs remained unchanged as did legs however Gammon sales were very strong as December approaches. Bellys continue to cause problems as availability and prices continue to move in opposite directions.

Poultry

EU poultry prices have softened for December due to the slight strengthening of the pound throughout
November. Availability remains unchanged..

Download the Dec Report 2016 as a PDF file

Beef


UK – GB cattle prices have now increased consistently for four months and this trend is showing no signs of shifting short term. Steers meeting the ideal R4L specification have increases by 11p throughout September.

With lower amounts of imported product, demand on domestic beef has trengthened. Imports from Ireland has reduced by 20%, while imports from the Netherlands and Poland have dropped 40% and 30% respectively. 

Movement away from imported product is most likely a reflection of the devaluation of the £ against the € making European beef less attractive to UK buyers.

South America

Brazil - This month has seen Brazil become operational in the US market with the first containers carrying Brazilian fresh beef leaving destined for the US last week (W/C 17th Sept). Marfrig are the first suppliers to send shipment with JBS poised to follow suit. Brazil production has seen an increase in the second quarter of 2016 (7.63 million head). This number was 4.5% above that of quarter 2015 and it have been forecasted that production will increase a further 2% in 2017.


Uruguay – It has been reported that next month Uruguay will enter into a Free Trade Agreement with China, showing signs that focus will be directed towards increasing export numbers. The UK is also said to be in discussion with Uruguay regarding a similar agreement.

Argentina – Exports have grown in number and in prices throughout September with China now buying more than 35% of all the country’ exported beef.

North America – US beef exports were as Japan (+6%), Mexico (+24%) and South Korea (+36%) leading the increases. US beef prices continue to decline due to increased domestic production. US end users are beginning to make the switch to domestic product as it is now becoming better value.

Lamb

With UK demand returning to normal levels and supplies falling slightly it was a surprise that the Lamb prices dropped consistently throughout Sept but are still £0.28 higher than the same time last year.

Imported lamb will remain tight with far eastern influences still having a major impact on lamb coming out Australia and New Zealand.  Looking further ahead, following the announcements from some major retailers that all their Lamb (where possible) will be sourced from the UK will mean the outlook on both imported and domestic Lamb is bleak.

Pork & Bacon

The UK spec price rose again throughout September with prices raising above £1.40 form the first time in over 18 months. Slaughterings fell by 2% compared to August and 8% compared with the same period in 2015.


European pig herd numbers continue to decline resulting in tightening supply and an upward trend in EU pig prices. This decline was mainly down to German and Danish herd reducing by 3%. EU export numbers continue to increase with tonnage numbers increasing by 43.8% compared with the same time last year.

Poultry

EU and UK chicken prices remained stable since the initial disruption of Brexit. Prices from the EU will remain “stand on” throughout October with UK prices likely to follow suit. Longer term. Prices are likely to come under threat following from a reduction of 5% in Chinese production in 2016 with further declines in 2017 estimated to by circa 10-15%. This will result in pressure in UK and EU markets.

Download the Oct Report 2016 as a PDF file

Beef

UK – UK cattle prices have continued to increase throughout July. This continues the bullish trend that has been taking place in the GB cattle market since around the end of April. Overall, this means that prime cattle prices have now almost recovered to levels seen at the beginning of this year.

Official figures from June (July figures not yet available) have shown a 3% increase (at 161,400 head) of throughput compared to the same month in 2015.

This now means that, in the first half of the year, prime cattle kill numbers are just over two per cent up on the same period last year at 984,000 head. However, cow throughputs are up almost 11 per cent, or 30,000 head at 274,000 head. With carcase weights trending lower for much of the year so far, significantly in the case of young bulls, there has been an impact on production. In the first six months of the year, production is up three per cent, or 12,000 tonnes, year on year, at 445,000 tonnes.

North America – News coming from the US recently stating that they are preparing begin importing beef from the UK for the first time in 20 years will mean that UK producers will be gearing up to obtain the relevant accreditation in order to get there piece of the estimated £35 million pie. Although the ban is not due to be lifted until January 2017 it will mean that supply will begin to tighten as we approach the busy
Xmas period.

South America – As well as successful trade agreement negotiations with the UK, the USDA have also agreed a two way trade deal with Brazil meaning that the import ban imposed on the US in 2003 will be lifted within the next 3 months. This deal is set to significantly improve Brazil’s position on the international market. Brazil have recently over taken Australia as the biggest exporter into China (an increase of 75 so these developments will only cement their status as a global beef super power.

Trade Data for 2016 shows that Brazilian exports have increased by over 80,000 tonnes on the year, Demonstrating that South America is dominating the global beef market. Although Brazil is leasing the way, Argentina and Uruguay are also increasing significantly.

Europe – Europe is the most stable beef production region right now, with prices strengthening slightly, supported by steady exports, in particular to Turkey, despite ample availability of beef and low prices of competitive proteins. Also, it has been confirmed that Ireland have been given the green for the export of live cattle into Turkey. Primarily the focus will be towards animals under 1 year old and 300kgs.


Lamb

Following price rises in the past two weeks, which have been attributed to the fall in the strength of the pound, the price of live weight lambs has begun to follow a more normal pattern in the last week, and fallen.

In the week ended 20 July, market prices fell by 12p compared to the previous week, to 188.7p/kg. This remained 38p higher than the same week in 2015 as the currency situation remains more favourable to exporters, while supplies remain tighter than the same week in 2015. Prices are thought to have dropped in the week as they follow their normal seasonal pattern for this time of year. Declines were seen
throughout the period, with the GB SQQ on Wednesday 20 July falling by 5p to 185.7p/kg.

The fall in deadweight price seen in the past week has come despite a decline in the number of throughputs, with numbers coming to GB auction markets down 11 per cent on the previous week. This left numbers four per cent below the same period a year earlier.


Pork & Bacon

Slaughter numbers remained low throughout July which has continued to support the increasing price in pig meat. Market unpredictability has made it difficult for producers to balance carcasses which means there are a lot of deficits but also some surpluses.

As the weather remains temperamental and the BBQ season is yet to take hold. A result of this has meant that back prices have softened in recent weeks meaning increases in bacon prices have suddenly receded.  A recent press release from Danish Crown (one of Europe’s biggest pig producers) states that they are experiencing “weak summer demand” for a whole host of meat cuts and that they are exporting its pork at slightly lower prices and believes the “peak” of the summer has now passed.

However looking further ahead the continued Chinese import demand is predicted to support the global pig prices throughout the 3rd quarter of 2016.

Poultry

UK chicken production increased by 0.5% year on year to 72.8 million birds showing a strengthening domestic market. UK chicken meat prices have stayed firm throughout July and availability has remained stable due to the inconsistent weather we have seen so far this summer.

EU prices increased at the beginning of the month due to the value of the pound on the back of Brexit. However there have been some stability in recent weeks and prices are expected to level out throughout August.

Download the Aug 2016 Report as a PDF file